This lesson covers common expressions used to show how sure or unsure we are. You will learn phrases and modal verbs that indicate certainty (100%), probability (high to low), and doubt (low probability or disbelief). We focus on tone and situational appropriateness for business and everyday contexts.
Certainty: expressions and structures that show you are sure (e.g., I'm certain, there's no doubt, must + verb).
Probability: degrees of likelihood using modals and adverbs (e.g., probably, likely, might, could).
Doubt: ways to show skepticism or low probability (e.g., I doubt, unlikely, may not).
Table
Expressions of Certainty → Probability → Doubt
Expression
Type
Estimated likelihood
Example
There's no doubt / I'm certain
phrase / adjective
≈ 100%
There's no doubt the merger will proceed.
must + verb (deduction)
modal verb
Very high
She must be the new director — she signed the memo.
be sure / be confident
phrase
High
I am confident the team will meet the deadline.
probably / likely
adverb / adjective
High (≈ 70-90%)
They will probably approve the budget next week.
may / might / could
modal verbs
Possible (≈ 30-60%)
He might join the call if his schedule allows.
possibly / perhaps
adverb
Moderate chance
Perhaps we should delay the presentation.
unlikely / I doubt it
adjective / phrase
Low (≈ 10-20%)
It's unlikely the client will accept that price.
impossible / there's no way
phrase
≈ 0%
It's impossible for the server to be down without an alarm.
Tip
Key rule: Choose the right intensity and form
Select an expression that matches how sure you really are and use the correct grammatical form.
Use modals (must/might/could) + base verb to express degrees of deduction or possibility.
Use adverbs (definitely/probably/possibly) before the main verb (or after 'be').
Use phrases (I doubt / I'm certain / I'm confident) to state personal attitude; these are followed by a clause (that + clause) or an infinitive where appropriate.
Match intensity (certain → probable → doubtful) to the context — in business, avoid absolute certainty unless you are certain.
Example
Examples in context
I'm certain the meeting starts at 9.
She must be the new project manager; she led the briefing.
They will probably finish the report by Friday.
I doubt he will accept the offer without changes.
Tip
Common mistakes when expressing certainty/probability/doubt
Avoid these universal errors that confuse meaning or tone.
Mixing modals incorrectly (e.g., using must and might together) which creates unclear meaning.
Placing adverbs in the wrong position (e.g., after the verb when they should be before or after 'be').
Using absolute language in uncertain contexts (e.g., 'definitely' when you only have a guess).
Overusing vague words (maybe, perhaps) in formal business communication instead of precise probability language.
Confusing adjectives and adverbs (e.g., 'probable' vs 'probably').
Check modal choice, adverb placement, and tone to make your level of certainty clear and appropriate.
Quiz
Which sentence expresses the strongest certainty?
Hint: Think about modals that show deduction and strong certainty.
Correct!
The modal 'must' used as a deduction indicates a strong degree of certainty based on evidence.
Incorrect
The correct answer was: It must rain tomorrow.
The modal 'must' used as a deduction indicates a strong degree of certainty based on evidence.
Quiz
Complete: I _____ that the data are accurate.
Hint: Choose a phrase that shows confidence about facts.
Correct!
'Am confident' expresses a high degree of certainty and is commonly used in professional contexts.
Incorrect
The correct answer was: am confident
'Am confident' expresses a high degree of certainty and is commonly used in professional contexts.
Quiz
Which phrase is most appropriate to express reasonable probability in a business email without sounding certain?
Hint: Consider a polite, non-absolute phrase suitable for formal communication.
Correct!
'It's likely' signals a high probability while remaining tentative and appropriate for professional tone.
Incorrect
The correct answer was: It's likely
'It's likely' signals a high probability while remaining tentative and appropriate for professional tone.
Key Points
GrammarPoint
must
modal verbCEFR B2//mʌst//
Used to express strong deduction or necessity.
She must be at the client meeting; her calendar is blocked.
GrammarPoint
might / may / could
modal verbsCEFR B1//maɪt/ /meɪ/ /kʊd//
Modals used to express possibility or lower certainty.
We might postpone the meeting if key members are absent.
Vocabulary
probably
adverbCEFR B1//ˈprɒbəbli//
Indicates a high likelihood but not certainty.
They will probably approve the proposal at the meeting.