Lesson

Expressing certainty, probability, doubt

Degrees of certainty

≈ 15 min 8 block(s)

Text

Expressing certainty, probability, and doubt

This lesson covers common expressions used to show how sure or unsure we are. You will learn phrases and modal verbs that indicate certainty (100%), probability (high to low), and doubt (low probability or disbelief). We focus on tone and situational appropriateness for business and everyday contexts.

  • Certainty: expressions and structures that show you are sure (e.g., I'm certain, there's no doubt, must + verb).
  • Probability: degrees of likelihood using modals and adverbs (e.g., probably, likely, might, could).
  • Doubt: ways to show skepticism or low probability (e.g., I doubt, unlikely, may not).

Table

Expressions of Certainty → Probability → Doubt

Expression Type Estimated likelihood Example
There's no doubt / I'm certain phrase / adjective ≈ 100% There's no doubt the merger will proceed.
must + verb (deduction) modal verb Very high She must be the new director — she signed the memo.
be sure / be confident phrase High I am confident the team will meet the deadline.
probably / likely adverb / adjective High (≈ 70-90%) They will probably approve the budget next week.
may / might / could modal verbs Possible (≈ 30-60%) He might join the call if his schedule allows.
possibly / perhaps adverb Moderate chance Perhaps we should delay the presentation.
unlikely / I doubt it adjective / phrase Low (≈ 10-20%) It's unlikely the client will accept that price.
impossible / there's no way phrase ≈ 0% It's impossible for the server to be down without an alarm.

Tip

Key rule: Choose the right intensity and form

Select an expression that matches how sure you really are and use the correct grammatical form.

  • Use modals (must/might/could) + base verb to express degrees of deduction or possibility.
  • Use adverbs (definitely/probably/possibly) before the main verb (or after 'be').
  • Use phrases (I doubt / I'm certain / I'm confident) to state personal attitude; these are followed by a clause (that + clause) or an infinitive where appropriate.

Match intensity (certain → probable → doubtful) to the context — in business, avoid absolute certainty unless you are certain.

Example

Examples in context

I'm certain the meeting starts at 9.

She must be the new project manager; she led the briefing.

They will probably finish the report by Friday.

I doubt he will accept the offer without changes.

Tip

Common mistakes when expressing certainty/probability/doubt

Avoid these universal errors that confuse meaning or tone.

  • Mixing modals incorrectly (e.g., using must and might together) which creates unclear meaning.
  • Placing adverbs in the wrong position (e.g., after the verb when they should be before or after 'be').
  • Using absolute language in uncertain contexts (e.g., 'definitely' when you only have a guess).
  • Overusing vague words (maybe, perhaps) in formal business communication instead of precise probability language.
  • Confusing adjectives and adverbs (e.g., 'probable' vs 'probably').

Check modal choice, adverb placement, and tone to make your level of certainty clear and appropriate.

Quiz

Which sentence expresses the strongest certainty?

Hint: Think about modals that show deduction and strong certainty.

Quiz

Complete: I _____ that the data are accurate.

Hint: Choose a phrase that shows confidence about facts.

Quiz

Which phrase is most appropriate to express reasonable probability in a business email without sounding certain?

Hint: Consider a polite, non-absolute phrase suitable for formal communication.

Key Points

GrammarPoint

must

modal verb CEFR B2 //mʌst//

Used to express strong deduction or necessity.

She must be at the client meeting; her calendar is blocked.

GrammarPoint

might / may / could

modal verbs CEFR B1 //maɪt/ /meɪ/ /kʊd//

Modals used to express possibility or lower certainty.

We might postpone the meeting if key members are absent.

Vocabulary

probably

adverb CEFR B1 //ˈprɒbəbli//

Indicates a high likelihood but not certainty.

They will probably approve the proposal at the meeting.

Expression

certain / be certain

adjective / phrase CEFR B2 //ˈsɜːtənt/ /biː ˈsɜːtən//

To be sure about something; to have no doubt.

I'm certain the figures are accurate after the audit.

Expression

doubt / I doubt

noun / verb / phrase CEFR B2 //daʊt//

To be uncertain or disbelieving about something.

I doubt the supplier can deliver that quantity this week.

Vocabulary

likely / it's likely

adjective / phrase CEFR B1 //ˈlaɪkli//

Having a high probability of happening.

It's likely we will need an extra resource for the project.

Expression

confident / be confident

adjective / phrase CEFR B2 //ˈkɒnfɪdənt//

Feeling sure about something; expressing trust in an outcome.

I am confident the new process will reduce errors.